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China's leading role in globalisation
中國擔綱全球化 行穩才能致遠
Publishing Date: 2017/6/16

雙語社評齊齊聽

英語 (足本收聽)

普通話 (足本收聽)

【明報專訊】TODAY (May 15) the curtain comes down on the first China-hosted "Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation". Over the past two days, more than a thousand guests including heads of state or government of twenty-nine countries have gathered together in Beijing and witnessed there a major diplomatic show China has put up on its home turf. As the US, Japan and North Korea, which once were cold towards the "one belt, one road" (OBOR) proposal, are represented at the summit, one may say it is to China a diplomatic bumper harvest and regard it as that which symbolises the country's leadership in new economic globalisation. The summit has proved successful. That has clearly raised China's confidence in pursuing the OBOR strategy.

ENG audio 1

Being an idea contributive to new globalisation, OBOR should be inclusive, open and multilateral cooperation. China should not take up everything alone. It is not its one-way output to pursue the OBOR strategy. How should it further open itself to the rest of the world? This is in fact the biggest challenge China is faced with.

ENG audio 2

According to figures China has made public, in 2016, its direct investments in countries along OBOR dropped 2%, and its non-financial direct investments in fifty-three OBOR countries accounted only for 9% of its extra-territorial investment. That is in sharp contrast with exaggerations about OBOR that have appeared in the mainland media.

ENG audio 3

Not being China's expedient of exporting its excessive capacity, OBOR should be a plan of vital and lasting importance that would help countries to connect with one another and supply one another's needs. China should neither seek instant satisfaction nor strive for temporary superiority. As what is called mutually-beneficial, win-win new globalisation is neither an aid plan under which money is splashed out nor a small free trade circle like the TPP, China should focus on business when it does business, stand in awe of the laws of economics and abide by commercial logic. It must refrain from relying on compelling government agencies or state-owned enterprises to do their shares of investment regardless of returns and prevent unscrupulous businessmen from actually transferring their assets, evading paying tax or acquiring foreign assets predatorily under the pretext of OBOR. It must do the first part lest countries along OBOR should make excessive demands. Though China's foreign-exchange reserves amount to US$3 trillion, it will eventually find endless demands unbearable. It should do the second part lest the country's economic interests should be damaged, the OBOR strategy be brought into disrepute and the pursuance of that international strategy be clouded.

ENG audio 4

The politico-economic situations in countries along OBOR are complicated and highly changeable. China's Myitsone Dam project (in Myanmar) and its high-speed rail project in Mexico have met with failure. It should draw a lesson from what it has experienced. When it carries out such a major project, it must not rash — must not rush headlong into mass action as if it were a political movement. It must fully and meticulously assess the risks such a project may entail in relation to diplomacy, economic relations and trade. There is of course no need for the government to ensure commercial investments will prove profitable or guarantee their minimum returns. However, it should provide non-government businesses investing in foreign countries with sufficient information and diplomatic escort.

ENG audio 5

For nearly forty years China has done what is similar to "touching rocks while crossing a river" in introducing reforms and opening itself to the rest of the world. It will take up a totally new role when it becomes the helmsman of new globalisation. When it navigates in the choppy OBOR waters, it must move with great care. Take care and care will prevail.

ENG audio 6

中國首次舉辦的「一帶一路國際合作高峰論壇」今日(5月15日)落幕,兩天來,包括29個國家元首和政府首腦在內的全球百多個國家千多賓客齊集北京,見證這場今年中國主場外交的「重頭戲」。由於之前一直冷待「一帶一路」倡議的美、日和朝鮮等國都派出代表與會,今次峰會可算是中國外交的一次豐收,並被認為是中國引領新型經濟全球化的標誌。今次峰會的成功,顯然提升了中國推進「一帶一路」戰略的信心。

PTH audio 1

「一帶一路」既然是一個對新型全球化有貢獻的構想,就應該是包容開放多邊的合作,而不應由中國獨家大包大攬。事實上,推進「一帶一路」戰略,並不是中國的單向輸出,在推進這一戰略中,中國如何進一步對全世界開放,這才是中國最大的挑戰。

PTH audio 2

據中方公布的數字,2016年中國向「一帶一路」沿線國家的直接投資下跌了2%,中國對53個「一帶一路」國家的非金融類直接投資只佔中國對外投資的9%。這與內地輿論對「一帶一路」計劃的言過其實形成了鮮明對比。

PTH audio 3

「一帶一路」戰略既然不是中國輸出過剩產能的權宜之計,就應是互聯互通的百年大計,既毋須逞一時之快,亦不應爭一日之短長。所謂互利共贏的新型全球化,既不是大撒金錢的援助計劃,也不是TPP之類的自貿小圈子,就應在商言商,尊重經濟規律,服從商業邏輯。不能靠政府國企不問回報的硬性攤派式投資,亦要防止不肖商人掛「一帶一路」之名,行資產轉移、偷逃避稅,甚至掠奪性收購外國資產之實。前者會助長沿線國家獅子大開口之風,即使中國有3萬億美元外匯儲備,也終會不堪無度需索;後者則既損害國家經濟利益,又敗壞「一帶一路」戰略名聲,給推進這一國際戰略蒙上陰影。

PTH audio 4

「一帶一路」沿線國家政經局勢複雜,形勢多變,中國應汲取緬甸密松水電站和墨西哥高鐵等項目投資失敗的經驗教訓,對一些重點項目的推進,不能太急,搞運動式的一哄而上,對相關投資項目的外交和經貿風險必須有充分細緻的評估。政府對商業投資固然毋須保底包賺,但對民間資本走出國門理應提供足夠的資訊和外交護航。

PTH audio 5

中國過往近40年的改革開放,是摸茈衈Y過河,現在,做新型全球化的舵手,更是一項全新的事業,在風高浪急的「一帶一路」行進,也要步步為營,小心駛得萬年船。

PTH audio 6

明報社評2017.05.15

Presented by lecturers of Hong Kong Community College, PolyU and The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Dr KWOK, Frieda Yuk-yin
Lecturer
www.hkcc-polyu.edu.hk/staff_directory/language_communication/KWOK,_Frieda_Yuk-yin-110.html

冒晟
講師
www.hkcc-polyu.edu.hk/staff_directory/language_communication/MAO,_Michelle_Sheng-352.html

【Bilingual Editorial】

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